Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: There's still hope for compelling rankings drama (2024)

Let’s be honest: It’s not been the most compelling season for college football rankings. Georgia has been No. 1 in the AP Top 25 all year. Michigan has been No. 2 all year. The top five has been the same since Oct. 15.

I wondered last week whether chaos was coming, and the immediate answer was an unequivocal no: The only top-12 teams to lose on Saturday, Ole Miss and Penn State, lost to … Georgia and Michigan. A team ranked in the AP top five has not lost since Oklahoma beat then-No. 3 Texas on Oct. 7. The only others this season? Alabama to Texas and LSU to Florida State in the first two weeks.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t interesting storylines to follow as we barrel toward the postseason. Though the College Football Playoff rankings dominate the conversation this time of year, the AP poll still has the final word on the Top 25 come January.

Will there be a compelling finish? What’s on the line? Instead of digging into the current static ballot, let’s look at what could be ahead:

1. We tend to get tired of repetitiveness in college football. We don’t want the same team to win championships every year, and repeating as the Heisman Trophy winner has become nearly impossible. I’ve had a wandering eye myself when evaluating who the best team in the country is, maintaining skepticism about Georgia before settling on the Bulldogs atop my ballot the past few weeks. Georgia’s domination of Ole Miss reinforced its No. 1 status here, even if I would still take the field to win the national title.

With Georgia 10-0, we shouldn’t overlook the historic greatness that is possible. Georgia has been No. 1 in 22 consecutive polls, the second-longest streak in history. It has a chance to be the first team to be crowned national champion in three consecutive seasons in the poll era (the last three-peat was Minnesota from 1934 to 1936, the first year of the AP poll). Georgia can become the 12th preseason AP No. 1 to finish the season atop the poll and the third team since the preseason poll debuted in 1950 to go wire-to-wire, joining 1999 Florida State and 2004 USC.

If anybody could achieve all of this, you’d think it would be Nick Saban. Instead, it might be his protégé, Kirby Smart.

2. Of course, Saban may have something to say about it. If Georgia doesn’t pull off a three-peat, it’s possible it could be because of Alabama. The Crimson Tide looked dead in the water in September but have rallied to look like a budding juggernaut thanks in part to the growth of Jalen Milroe at quarterback. Suddenly, Alabama extending its record streak of 15 consecutive seasons with an appearance at No. 1 doesn’t seem impossible.

At the least, the Crimson Tide extending their streak of 15 consecutive AP top-10 finishes has become more likely than not.

3. It’s impossible to ignore everything that’s going on at Michigan, of course. The Connor Stalions/sign-stealing/in-person scouting investigation and fight about Jim Harbaugh’s suspension is the biggest soap opera in the sport. Whether it taints what Michigan accomplishes will be for the history books — and maybe NCAA investigators? — to decide.

For now, there’s little doubt about what’s in front of us: Michigan is one of the best teams in the country, with a chance to win its first national title since 1997. That’s also the last time it ranked No. 1 at one point in any season.

The past two years marked the first time since 1947-48 that Michigan finished in the top three in consecutive seasons. Now it has a chance to do it three years in a row for the first time.

4. The top eight teams — Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Alabama — appear to have separated themselves as the national championship contenders. That’s more legitimate title threats at this stage in a season than we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years, and they represent every Power 5 conference. The lack of dramatic upsets has been disappointing, but then again the stage is set for a mad dash to the finish and an entertaining final four-team Playoff. A memorable ending is still on the table.

Seven of those eight have won a national title, though Michigan (most recently 1997) and Washington (1991) haven’t done so in the 21st century, giving them a fresher feel. Then there’s Oregon, which has a chance to become the first first-time national champion since 1996 Florida after coming up short in the national title game in 2010 and 2014.

5. Apologies to Louisville, the only one-loss Power 5 team I left out of the above list. Most would presumably agree. After all, the only losses among those top contenders were to top-15 teams; Louisville got blown out by 2-8 Pitt and barely escaped 2-8 Virginia last week.

But even if Louisville isn’t a national title contender, wins against Miami, Kentucky and even potentially Florida State in the ACC title game can’t be ruled out. It’s been quite a Year 1 turnaround for hometown legend Jeff Brohm, at a school that has two all-time top-10 finishes (sixth in 2004 and 2006). This is the first time the Cardinals have cracked the top 10 since the late-season collapse during Lamar Jackson’s 2016 Heisman campaign.

6. Louisville has as many top-10 finishes as Duquesne, Iowa Pre-Flight, Santa Clara, Princeton and, yes, Kentucky, among others. Oregon State hasn’t fared much better, despite being a power conference team for much longer. The Beavers have four top-10 finishes, tied with Boise State, Boston College, Oklahoma State, Rice and Utah for the 51st most. Their only top-10 finish since the 1960s came in 2000, with quarterback Jonathan Smith. He tossed a pair of touchdowns in Oregon State’s win against Oregon, the only top-10 matchup in the history of Reser Stadium.

Smith is now the head coach, and the Beavers will host Washington in the second top-10 matchup in the history of Reser Stadium on Saturday night (their other three were bowl games). Oregon State is trying to beat a top-five team for the first time since it improbably won one while unranked in three consecutive seasons from 2006-08.

7. In shutting out Rutgers 22-0, Iowa raised its scoring average to 18.4 points per game. It’s 8-2 and a win away from the Big Ten West title. The CFP selection committee ranked the Hawkeyes last week, and I gave in this week. They are the top team just outside the AP poll.

Last year, Iowa averaged a paltry 17.7 points per game and finished unranked, though it still won eight games. The last team to average 18.4 points per game or fewer and finish ranked? In 1994, Washington State went 8-4, scored 16.0 points per game and ended up 21st after a 10-3 win in the Alamo Bowl.

The most recent teams to average fewer than 20 points per game and finish ranked: 2015 Northwestern, 1994 Washington State, 1993 Clemson, 1985 LSU and 1984 USC.

8. The latest AP poll has three Group of 5 teams ranked. Two of them are undefeated and among the newest FBS teams. Liberty, which has been in the FBS since 2018 and finished ranked in 2020, is in the poll at No. 25 despite an abhorrent schedule. James Madison, which moved up last year, is up to 18th. No Sun Belt team has finished higher than Coastal Carolina, which was 14th in 2020. Of course, JMU faces the hurdle of not currently being eligible to play in the postseason.

Then there’s Tulane, last year’s Cotton Bowl champion. The Green Wave have had some close calls but have still lost to only Ole Miss. Tulane is up to No. 17 after finishing ninth in 2022. It hasn’t finished ranked in consecutive seasons since 1938-39 when it was a member of the SEC.

9. Two top-20 teams that nobody expected before the season: Missouri and Arizona. Mizzou dominated Tennessee and moved up five spots to No. 11, its best ranking since it finished No. 5 in 2013. The Tigers have eight top-10 finishes, but only two (2013 and 2007) have come in the past 50 years.

Arizona, meanwhile, extended its hot streak with a win against Colorado. Jedd Fisch went 1-11 in his debut in 2021 and 5-7 last year. Now, he has the Wildcats 7-3 and ranked No. 19. They have only one ranked finish — 19th in 2014 — since they were No. 4 in 1998.

10. Georgia is on one of the greatest No. 1 runs ever, but at any moment it could end and open the door for something new. Georgia, Alabama, Clemson and LSU are the only teams to reach the top of the AP poll since 2016 (yes, Ohio State is the current CFP No. 1).

Ohio State last topped the AP poll in 2015. Florida State did so in 2014, Oregon in 2012, Texas in 2008, Michigan in 1997 and Washington in 1992. There’s no threat of a first-time No. 1 like Mississippi State in 2014, but just the fact that so many teams are in the conversation feels like a nice change of pace from most of the CFP era … even if that unprecedented Georgia three-peat remains firmly on the table

(Top photo of Damien Martinez: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)

Matt Brown is a deputy managing editor for The Athletic College Football. He previously spent six years as an editor and the lead national college football and basketball writer for Sports on Earth. Follow Matt on Twitter @MattBrownCFB